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本文來自2015年7月18日的《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》，本季度的中國(guó)股市經(jīng)歷了大起大落，作為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要分子，中國(guó)股市的震蕩自然會(huì)對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生重大影響。老師提醒大家，這也是我們復(fù)習(xí)考研英語(yǔ)需要重點(diǎn)了解的話題，有了對(duì)背景知識(shí)的了解，之后再讀類似題材的文章就會(huì)順利很多。

對(duì)此次股市暴跌，政府采取了財(cái)政措施試圖控制其殺傷力(the government tried frantically to limit the damage)。但我們并不是第一個(gè)由于擔(dān)心崩盤可能對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成傷害而試圖去提振股價(jià)的國(guó)家。格林斯潘在擔(dān)任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席期間，就曾經(jīng)通過給予投資者他會(huì)降息來阻止股市潰敗的印象這種方式，創(chuàng)造出了著名的“格林斯潘對(duì)策”。China was hardly the first country to try to bolster stock prices for fear of the economic harm a crash could bring. Alan Greenspan, as chairman of the Federal Reserve, famously created the “Greenspan put” by giving investors the impression he would cut interest rates to stop stockmarket routs.

殊不知，這些介入背后的原理是一種直到最近都很少受到關(guān)注的思想，即股市泡沫對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)有著極大的殺傷力。其實(shí)，好像并不是所有的泡沫都一樣壞。The underlying rationale for these interventions is an idea that until recently received surprisingly little scrutiny—namely, that stockmarket busts are very damaging for the economy. Not all bubbles, it would appear, are equally bad.

據(jù)兩份最新論文，區(qū)分相對(duì)無害的瘋狂與災(zāi)難性瘋狂的關(guān)鍵變量是債務(wù)。在許多案例中，股市狂熱屬于較不令人擔(dān)憂的一類。According to two new papers, the crucial variable that separates relatively harmless frenzies from disastrous ones is debt. In many cases, stockmarket manias fall into the less worrying category.

在為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)查局撰寫的論文中，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家梳理了過去140年里的房地產(chǎn)和股票市場(chǎng)的泡沫。他們的結(jié)論是，最危險(xiǎn)的是由信貸繁榮催生的房地產(chǎn)泡沫，最不令人煩惱的是不依賴于債務(wù)的股市泡沫。Writing for the National Bureau of Economic Research, scientists examine bubbles in housing and equity markets over the past 140 years. The most dangerous, they conclude, are housing bubbles fuelled by credit booms. The least troublesome are equity bubbles that do not rely on debt.

那么，股市暴跌Stockmarket routs到底是如何影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的呢?股市暴跌一般是通過“財(cái)富效應(yīng)”來傷害經(jīng)濟(jì)的。在人們看到自己資產(chǎn)比以前大幅減少時(shí)，他們會(huì)減少開支，導(dǎo)致需求走軟，最終引發(fā)投資疲軟。債務(wù)能夠使這種情況變得更壞。Stockmarket routs typically harm the economy via the “wealth effect”. When people see that their assets are worth substantially less than before, they spend less, leading to weaker demand and, ultimately, weaker investment. Debt can make this worse.

這次中國(guó)的股市泡沫正是伴隨著大量債務(wù)而來(accompanied by lots of debt)，并會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成嚴(yán)重的破壞(can cause severe economic damage)，如果任其破裂而不施以任何援手也是一個(gè)不好的選項(xiàng)，所以政府的救市還是及時(shí)并且是必要的。提醒廣大考生，在研究考研英語(yǔ)真題的基礎(chǔ)上，也要同步做一些泛讀，豐富文化背景知識(shí)儲(chǔ)備。祝大家考研英語(yǔ)復(fù)習(xí)順利，為夢(mèng)想加油!